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Hedging an active hurricane season »

Posted by: STONERS 2 years, 7 months ago

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A perfect storm could drive U.S. gasoline past $4 a gallon.The hurricanes of 2004 and 2005 destroyed much of the gulf coast and created havoc in big energy states like Louisiana and Texas. If the forecasts are to be believed, 2007 could be even worse.

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Comments: 15

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STONERS
March 29, 2007, 1:49 p.m.
Predictions are rolling in almost daily now from various forecasters around the globe all claiming that the La Nina effect will increase the number and intensity of the Gulf storms this hurricane season. Some are calling for as many as 17 storms that will hit all along the Gulf Coast. The Gulf, especially the Houston area is well known for its refineries, off loading terminals, and drilling operations.
A direct hit into that area would be devastating. Even if there is no direct hurricane hit, just the threat of hurricanes in the area leads to disruptions and slowdowns that absolutely cut into supplies. These disruptions to supplies frequently occur during the height of the summer driving season and this year will be no different.
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1-2-Oscar
March 29, 2007, 2:52 p.m.
Both the author (Kevin Kerr) and the publisher (Dow Jones) of this article have an interest in stimulating consumer purchases of certain stocks. Therefore, their dire warnings, while not to be entirely ignored, may be exaggerated beyond the level of rational investment advice.
I suggest that any reader who is impressed by the concerns expressed in this article do some serious independent research before before making any stock purchases. The people who work in and around the market always profit when they can induce investor "churn."
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fotoman1133406
March 29, 2007, 8:23 p.m.
Guys,
And F.E.M.A.(the U.S. Government ) to the rescue,,,PPPPLLEEEAAASSE.
Avg rating: (+0/-0 0)
ProudBlueTexan
March 29, 2007, 8:38 p.m.
And what, Mr. Kerr, about the people who can never afford one share of stock in anything, and are sure to be driven into bankruptcy by $4/gl gas? They gave up on the 'American dream' years ago, when the 'It's the economy, stupid' people took over marketing. What about them, Mr. Kerr?
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amazed
March 29, 2007, 10:43 p.m.
Wasn't last year supposed to be a really, really bad hurricane season, also?
I don't know why they even bother with these hurricane season predictions. I can't remember a year where they said it was going to be a lighter than average season.
They're right about 1/2 the time.
Avg rating: (+12/-2 10)
newsquew
March 30, 2007, 12:39 a.m.
Announced today: American consumer consumption of petroleum is at an all time high, almost 2% more than last year @ this time. (Under these conditions a "perfect storm" leaves no flexibility in the system.)
Should that happen, it could be an opportunity for environmentalists to exert leadership & showcase the conservation methodology they've espoused for years. At $4/gal a lot of people would open to the bank of ideas that would become the better way.
Avg rating: (+0/-1 -1)
Nowalive
March 30, 2007, 8:25 a.m.
I don't have ANY holdings in energy. Too much risk. This would be the perfect time for some enterprising engineering students to rise to the top. Produce a midsize car capable of at least 100 MPG, running on flex fuel technology. One example would be tweaking the Rotapower rotary engine. With very minor adjustments, it can run on gas, diesel, LP, and I believe hydrogen. Of course that would fly in the face of investors, and big oil.
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vor
March 30, 2007, 9:43 a.m.
Imagine if we are knee deep in Iraq AND Iran and then got pelted with a couple of Cat 4's on the Gulf Coast. Would gas rationing return? And what would be the price of a gallon of gas in such a scenario? 8-10$ per gallon?
As someone stated above the poor can't hedge their bets. Even the the middle class would suffer to the extreme. This scenario would rapidly devastate the US economy which in turn would pull the entire world economy down.
We have to start looking at realistic solutions in regards to both foreign policy and our energy needs. These are intrisically linked. No way, no how, would we be in Iraq if there were just sand in those deserts.
Avg rating: (+6/-1 5)
SilverPaladin
March 30, 2007, 12:02 p.m.
I've never been one to trust the weather man, with the weather it's always going to be an assumption. I just hope if we do have some bad summer storms that they stay away from the mainland, and if they do strike the shore hopefully there will be time to prepare for them. We might be able to make it through the year with only a couple of tropical storms. Let's hope for the best.