Blue Chip panel puts U.S. recession odds at 50 percent »
Posted By STONERS 1 year, 9 months ago in Business & FinanceThe odds of a U.S. recession stand at nearly 50 percent amid a spate of data showing a weakening labor market, signs of more credit tightening and turmoil in the financial markets, the latest Blue Chip Economic forecast is projecting.
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STONERS1 year, 9 months ago
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"To help avert a recession, Blue Chip economists are expecting the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates. They expect the central bank will reduce its target federal funds rate by at least half a percentage point more this year."
"Last month, the Fed cut benchmark interest rates by a sharp 1.25 percentage points in a bold move to support growth as weakness, which was largely contained in the housing market last year, began to spread."
"The series of recent cuts took overnight rates, which stood at 5.25 percent in early September, down to 3 percent."
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Welfare_Made_Me_RichComment removed: Retracted by user3 Replies
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not2needy1 year, 9 months ago
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You know, my husband and i have great credit. Sometimes i think it's too good!
Every week we get about 15 to 20 credit card offers and everyone of them have outrageous interest rates. Most are between 19.9 to as much as 29.9 interest.
In this bad economy, i can't understand why they send out all these offers, especially to people with good credit and with those ridiculous interest rates. Not that i would want them with decent interest rates. LOL
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ETproductions1 year, 9 months ago
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It's called skimming. They charge an incredibly high interest rate because they KNOW that most of these loans will go into default. They paid off the Congress to pass "bankruptcy reform" before launching into these predatory lending practices.
And the people who fall victim to it are either.
1 -- Stupid.
2 -- Incredibly desperate.
But even if the damage were limited to #1 it would still be wrong. It's like a professional boxer picking a fight with a paraplegic.
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rdy2rckComment removed: Hard Banned
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nostalgia1 year, 9 months ago
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Not long
The US consumers buy more than any other country
If we stop buying, who is going to buy all of the junk manufactured all over the world?
Go back and look at what happened on the MLK holiday when the US markets were closed but reports of a possible US recession were in the news
Stock markets all over the world tanked
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TheRealizer1 year, 9 months ago
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progressive-bum1 year, 9 months ago
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Exactly what I'd been saying for years, ever since the righties have celebrated new stock market highs...which looked eerily like the runup to the 1929 crash. High home ownership rates, sheesh. The bank owns the house, you just get to pay property taxes directly instead of through your landlord.
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Centinel1 year, 9 months ago
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Much of this should be attributed to the extremely high cost of energy that has manifested itself recently. A huge chunk of income must be budgeted for energy. To offset the huge increase in energy costs, consumers must cut other expenses to cover the necessity of energy. Then there is the trickle down of increased fuel costs to all other products that require energy for production and distribution.
It will not improve until the fat cats making obscene record profits in the energy market are brought under control.
A "windfall profits tax" would go far toward this control. But, alas, our wealthy politicians with massive energy stock portfolios would never consider this since it would cut into their wealth generation.
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Obaku1 year, 9 months ago
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Nope.
Energy costs only appear to have risen, but it is just because the measure - fiat currency- represents less value.
Value, as in the relatiionships between real commodities, and labor.
It hurts most people more, because inflation has been cold-bloodedly used to MASK falling wages. The 'capitalists' benefit, because their capital - real assets (land, equipment, resources) inflate with the currency, and because all that 'new money' printed by the Fed goes to them FIRST, so that those newly created dollars compete for goods and services with money already in circulation, which has not yet discounted their value in response to that 'new money' , created out of thin air in the Fed's back room.
That is what "injected liquidity" is all about.
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Centinel1 year, 9 months ago
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simonsez,
I am reluctant to discuss economics with you. Past experience has shown it to be unproductive.
I would like to know how you benefit from recession. I mention this because your approach to economics in past discussions seems to welcome reductions in income and production. So much so that we Americans are left with little or no choice but to buy cheap CHINA-MART products.
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Obaku1 year, 9 months ago
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Here is a little thought problem for you.
If you had negotiated that your salary had to be paid in a fixed amount of gold in 2000, what would your salary be worth today, in inflated fiat dollars?
And how many of those dollars are you actually receiving?
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Centinel1 year, 9 months ago
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Lets put some values to that gold. In 2000 gold was at about $280 per Troy OZ. Today it is at $923.00 per Troy OZ.
So a salary of say $28,000 and gold was in fact at $280.00 then it would would have been paid with 100 troy ounces of gold.
Therefore today that same 100 ounces would be worth $92,300.
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miklkit1 year, 9 months ago
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Back in the early 80s my Union traded a no strike clause for a COLA. Our wages were tied to inflation. We made, oh I don't know, maybe $18 an hour then. We're making $48 an hour now and can't cover all of the work we have going on in our area. That was the best thing we ever did.
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GHOSTWHOWALKS1 year, 9 months ago
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The recession is here and a depression is knocking at the door. Look for the Fed to lower interest rates soon if a futile attempt to keep the door closed.
By the time the next election gets here, and I sincerely hope I'm wrong, that door will no longer be protecting anything. It will have crumbled and the depression will be full blown.
We have, as a society, lived beyond our means for so long that evidentially had to catch up with us. Printing fiat money, bulging defects, run away inflation, high energy prices, and a doing nothing political process,l have brought us to this point in time.
Government refuses to acknowledge there is a problem and will NOT care if the little people suffer because of their grandiose schemes. They have all the money and power to make sure doing stops their money train and some of the voting public seems to be either brain dead, or just refuse to change. C'est Le Vie. Hard lessons are just around the corner. Good luck.
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Centinel1 year, 9 months ago
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Ghost,
I don't know where you are from but I think I understand your reasoning through the unusual vocabulary and rhetoric. I gave you a positive.
Yes it was inevitable that after 100 years of Federal Reserve manipulation, price fixing, fiat money, overextension, energy cost and supply manipulation, and now unfair trade agreements this economic "disaster" is long overdue.
However, I don't think it is irreversible. Three thing need to happen to reverse the decline:
1. Take the current money supply and use the precious metals in the government inventories to back it up. This means gold, silver, palladium, and platinum should be valued to a level that would equal the money supply. No new dollars are to be printed without these values being increased by an equal amount by international standards.
2. Stop spending tax dollars overseas. This means bring our armed forces home as soon as possible from stable regions and from unstable regions when they become sufficiently stabilized.
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Centinel1 year, 9 months ago
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To continue,
2. cont. We need to also stop using "bribery" (the promise of economic aide) as a diplomatic tool. All this does is make the US out to be foolish.
3. Bring as much manufacturing back into the country as possible. This can easily be accomplished using the power of the tariff. Services may be more suited to off shoring except for the language and legal barriers. Legal meaning; if you are cheated, how are you able to punish the harmful action.
With these three actions our economy will stabilize over time and the US would again be able to compete on a global scale. For now we are the only consumers who can afford all the "junk" products flooding the global market. We are no more than "marks" or "targets".
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