Comments for McCain's (Long) Road to Electoral Win »
Posted By Mdiar 1 year, 2 months ago in Political NewsWith nine days to go until the election, John McCain' s electoral map is in tatters. According to Pollster.com, Obama presently holds leads of five or more points in 23 states containing 286 electoral votes - 16 more than he needs to clinch the electoral college. Obama holds smaller leads, moreover, in another seven states containing 92 electoral votes, including places as far afield as North Dakota. Obama has even led some recent polling in Georgia, West Virginia, and Montana.
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gamahuche1 year, 2 months ago
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Yes.. The NY Post was always a very right-wing - and sensationalist - tabloid when I lived there.
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I was quite surprised to find this there.
The summing up seemed about right:
FTA
"By no means would this strategy make a victory likely for John McCain. He needs to find some way to win several news cycles during the last week of the campaign, and then he needs hope, faith, and a lot of luck. But faced with a dire situation, McCain needs to re-find the focus and discipline that he has been lacking for much of the campaign; this is his best chance to do so."
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Honestly speaking the odds are very long against McCain - the English bookies are now calling Obama at 1-10 and McC at 11-2 [greedy odds actually!]]
As for his chances of pulling off a legitimate-vote upset, it seems to me that he completely lost his one great opportunity already when he tried to get involved in solving the economic crisis and wasted his time and energy being seen and not heard..
A lot to ask of someone to cobble together something coherent and brilliant and effective overnight but he set himself up to do it and flopped totally.
That other small detail that he also declared a truce in campaigning and then broke it hardly did him any favours either.-
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Mdiar1 year, 2 months ago
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Here's Nate Silver's site, actually:
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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
He does statistical analysis to determine the odds of the election going one way or the other. Its an extremely useful tool for those watching the election, whether people like his math or not.
I believe the NY Post is still a rightist paper, I'm not certain though.
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UnusualSuspect1 year, 2 months ago
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McCain has to win ALL the remaining "swing" states to win the election...Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida.
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He can't win six of them and still win the election...he has to win all seven...
Similar to my chances of winning the big prize in Lotto...very, very, slim...
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italymeetsdixie1 year, 2 months ago
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No possible way does he have time to pull this off. He isn't the best at multi-tasking. It could have worked a week or more ago, there isn't time now.
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I think his only chance at this point could be executive or judicial decision. His best hope is the voting fraud bull. But I think even that is a stretch t hat the GOP couldn't pull off with no more money or power than they are able to weild.-
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Mdiar1 year, 2 months ago
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If McCain were more intelligent, he'd be helping down-ticket races more and trying to prevent a 58-60 seat Senate controlled by the Democratic Party.
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Another thing to add to this story... it does require McCain to suddenly surge about 7%.
EDIT:
Just found this. If anyone encounters problems voting...
http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/2008/10/had-probl...
It also allows you to track where some problems have cropped up.-
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italymeetsdixie1 year, 2 months ago
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Republicanism is all about me. Even though he is losing and he knows he is losing, he should be doing what he can for his party and he isn't (this says alot). You know how hard that had to be for Hillary to keep from erupting into the super horrible things she wanted to say about Obama's experience, but she didn't because it wasn't good for the party if she didn't make it. McCain has lost, but he is still only thinking about him.
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gamahuche1 year, 2 months ago
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Your contrast of Hillary and McCain is very well put imd!
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It makes me feel pretty sure that if McC had been in Hillary's shoes [and her age] that he would have deliberately sabotaged on order to have a run in 4 years-time.
In the end what can we say about McC's campaign?
Exactly what Imd says! Utter selfishiness.
Can one even imagine him calling it a fair-fight and offering to give support in this time of crisis?
As far as ego is concerned, obviously Obama is not devoid of it himself!
But he evinces a very clear and evident desire to do well - and he'll have to be a GREAT President, not only to confound the sceptics and the naysayers and the racists. but also because of the g_d awful world situation that he'll be walking into.
On the face of it it looks like a poisoned chalice!
In his favour is that the rest of the world is much more likely to give him credibility
than they would McSame - which is really ALL that he looks like from a distant view - and this is also where his German visit counts very strongly in his favour, even though the Conservative tried to pooh-pooh it.
The McCain response of finding half a dozen natives of wherever it was and taking them to a German diner was one of the very low spots of his "campaign".
If Obama wins then the US and the world has a chance.
McCain - its all over, finished, no chance, no hope, no CHANGE. -
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flyonthewallzz1 year, 2 months ago
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"Republicanism is all about me."
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That statement is totally cool with me.
I do not dislike John McCain.
I respect the conservative viewpoint.
I have a big problem with the divide and conquer agenda.
We are all Americans!!!
Republicans (in my ignorant opinion) seem to restore the balance, from the times when government expanded to deal with crises.
The current administration has been an exception (in my ignorant opinion). It appears to me that the power and spending and size of government has doubled.
I do waste a bit of time reading stuff like the Federal budget.
I think it is time for a change, and I think it will take a strong government working hard to pull us out of the crap we are about to swim in.
For now: I think the Democrats tend to favor the folks that earn their income. Most of the tax cuts McCain is offering are for unearned income.
Back biting will only make it take longer before the Republicans can take charge again. Once again it is my opinion that the Republicans role is to reduce government in fair weather.
WE Americans have enjoyed more sunny days than rainy ones since the civil war. And the Republican Party has enjoyed power on those sunny days.
It is raining hard here in Philadelphia.
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not2needy1 year, 2 months ago
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No Way! McCain doesn't have the savvy or finesse to pull it off. Nor does he have the time or energy, he's wasted his time in negative attacks and picking Palin as his running mate.
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If it happens, it will be illegal, yet again. That scares the hell out of me because of the tail spin it will send this country in.-
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gamahuche1 year, 2 months ago
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"If it happens, it will be illegal, yet again."
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It SEEMS as if he doesn't have Rove - and also, quite honestly as if he doesn't have Bush either. Does he have anyone other than Flailin' Palin? and some of the hard-core propellerites and their peers who believe that only a Conservative duck knows how to quack.
He was such a last-chance-saloon candidate of his party that it seems unlikely that all those who rejected him then will magically become enchanted.
But it ain't over till the fat lady sings..
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flyonthewallzzComment removed: Spam
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flyonthewallzz1 year, 2 months ago
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http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:1936_Elect...
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Here is an electoral map for the guy that had to clean up after Coolidge and Hoover.
He did get hit with a 9/11 times 10.
When he took office, unemployment was about %25 when he left it was less than %2.
It would be fair to call him a socialist.
But what where the alternatives?-
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Mdiar1 year, 2 months ago
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Ahhh, a red Vermont... the state that has a Socialist representing them in the Senate (yes, he identifies as a Socialist). My, how things change! Then again, the Republican Party (even under Hoover) was quite a bit to the left of the Democratic Party of the time.
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flyonthewallzz1 year, 2 months ago
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1924_Electoral_...
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This is "Silent Cals" Electoral map.
There are some interesting parallels between then and now,even though the demographics have flipped.
Coolidge's legacy revolves around his quite laissez-faire attitude.
He is remembered for his 3 major tax cuts.
And Black Tuesday, (The Wall Street Crash of 1929).
Another Parallel is comparing the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 to Katrina.
Good thing neither "Silent Cal" or Hoover got hit with a 9/11.
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gamahuche1 year, 2 months ago
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Hmmm. Well I do remember some performances by the Cockettes that were about as blasphemous as that..
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Don't you think that perhaps McC in a pink frock with Paddler Palin in boy-drag whacking him could swing it?
I betcha they'd do it if they thought it would work!
OR!! - Some kind of 3-some involving plumbing and their favourite plumber - Joe, Sam, Fred?
Leaving Christ on the back-burner for the miracle of the votes.. all the Dem votes self-destructing in flaming pyres.
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gamahuche1 year, 2 months ago
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BTW please excuse my flippancy this night - its 3.50 am here, with the clock change..
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Its just so relaxing - at least for now - to NOT have the hard-core McC shills banging away like apparatchiks and to be able to let one's hair down a little.
It is darn serious, of course, what happens - and after the last 2 elections it seems to me absolutely crucial that the result be fair and proper. I define proper as democrat three times as strongly because of the last 2 stolen elections. To give the Republicans another would offend all concepts of fair-play and big D Democracy.
So please read my frivolous banter as just that and not at all as a denigration of the US, my adopted home for some 15 years, whither I was drawn for its freedom!!!
Unfortunately the 9th of September 2001 damaged the USA that I loved so severely that it has never recovered its optimistic warm and friendly glow. I was there on a visit just a year before, in NYC, during the elections that brought the current regime to power, watching the chads hang and the Florida shenanigans, and passing by the WTC every day and noticing the huddle of smokers outside each building. A year later, on a tiny island in Croatia, total population c. 250 people, we heard about the attack from someone who's brother survived because he skipped work that day. For some reason my mind immediately flipped to the people who survived because they were smokers and were on their break at that moment.
My daughter was at school in NYC at the time so I had to find a phone, of course. This year she got married there, to a Czech boy and her mother died the following day.
We daughter and I lived in VT from 1989 and Bernie Saunders was a part of our cosmology, as was Bear Pond Books, which received attention by its non-participation with the Patriot Act by destroying all sales records at time of purchase, thereby bypassing the requirement to report who bought what..
Somehow, somehow, the US desperately needs to recover its freedom again. We all need it! We all miss it!
My daughter is planning to return to live in Europe now, anyway, but its not just about that. Its the optimism, the can-do, the boldness, the imagination that we all need!
My greatest hope for the election - and perhaps for the current worldwide crisis, which is not a dire threat to my current home, as of now - is that the US shall again find its path to be a free and democratic society and an ally of the forces for good on the planet.-
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Mdiar1 year, 2 months ago
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Feel free to let your hair down in a thread of mine anytime. I think you meant September 11th, but you were close enough ;)
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I was speaking with a friend of mine, who is from Sweden, just the other day. He made a very clear statement, that he will have lost all faith in democracy if John McCain wins this election. I don't necessarily know if that reaction is to large or not, but he was quite serious. I, personally, am not sure exactly what I would do in the event of a McCain victory or what my reaction would be.
I miss the old America as well.-
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Mdiar1 year, 2 months ago
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I know you know ;)
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I've made typos before where I insert "Obama" for "McCain" or vice-versa. Now those are really weird typos.
In fact, on this very thread I had a typo which took one word and replaced it with "homosexual" because I was compiling some source material for a paper about homosexuality.
Obviously, I caught it quite quickly.-
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gamahuche1 year, 2 months ago
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I did a postmortem on it!
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Problem was that I changed my text from 9/11 to 11/9 - from US to European, then realised that didn't work and..
Now I take it from your answer that you weren't saying that McC [or Obama] was homosexual..
I'm surprised no one else has either.
Better stop here or I'll be giving ideas to the lunatic fringe! -
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ind061 year, 2 months ago
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As far as I can tell, and based on the electoral college map presented here:
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama...
and here:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Senator McCain, at 157 electoral votes, requires 115 extra votes to swing his way to win the general election.
First, and easiest, he needs to break the ties in:
MONTANA - 3
NORTH DAKOTA - 3
Next, still not difficult, he moves the following states by two to three percent:
NORTH CAROLINA (currently +1 Obama) - 15
MISSOURI (currently +2 Obama) - 11
FLORIDA (currently +2 Obama) - 27
Then, he takes his pick between these two states:
NEW HAMPSHIRE (currently +5 Obama) - 4
or
NEVADA (currently +3 Obama) - 5
[Obviously, best to go for Nevada]
Finally, and most problematically, he needs to take these three states which are solidly leaning for Senator Obama:
INDIANA (currently +7 Obama, but was leaning McCain for the vast majority of this race, IMHO, the easiest pickup for McCain of the three) - 11
OHIO (currently +6 Obama, this state has swung back and forth a lot as well) - 20
VIRGINIA (currently +7 Obama, also a true swing state having been for McCain then for Obama, then McCain and now Obama again) - 13
I've left out the state of Colorado even though Senator Obama leads there by 6 because at only 9 electoral votes it's unnecessary for a McCain win and, in fact, if he takes Colorado, but it costs him Virginia, Ohio or Indiana he'll lose the election.
It should also be added that Senator McCain has to keep hold of Georgia, where he "enjoys" a +2 lead (15 electoral votes) and South Dakota, where he's only up by +3 (3 electoral votes). The loss of either state will cost him the election.
So, the question is, can John McCain swing ten states in ten days? A long road indeed. -
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jordan111 year, 2 months ago
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I would hate to see this get a lot of attention nationally, and people not bother to vote for Obama because they think he has it in the bag. Every single person who is registered needs to vote. It will also help to stop anyone thinking of 'fixing' district elections if a huge democratic crowd shows up.
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