A pre-count for the Coleman-Franken recount »
Posted By Ciera-Marie 1 year, 1 month ago in Political News
The postelection audit isn't a recount - but it looks like one. And it may serve as a dress rehearsal for the biggest recount ever in Minnesota.
Call it a sneak preview of the recount.
Twenty men and women settled in along tables at the Ramsey County elections office first thing Monday morning and began plowing through more than 7,700 ballots cast last Tuesday in the U.S. Senate race.
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Ciera-Marie
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Beau78901 year, 1 month ago
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The more I hear about the way they conduct these checks in Minnesota, the more I like it.
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If I understand the article correctly, the error rate they're finding in some precincts is .00056, or 56/1000 of 1 percent. The margin between Coleman's and Franken's vote totals is less than 10/1000 of 1 percent. Seems like Franken still has a fairly good chance. -
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ningyo1 year, 1 month ago
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statistically speaking it seems contradictory ..but the closer an election is..the more likely a recount will give a flawed result..say if the margin was 100 votes in a 2 million vote base..if you recounted this 10 times the odds are that 5 would go to each side..so with a margin this thin a recount is virtually a coin toss..and letting the original chance selection stand would seem most fair..oddly enough as the gap widens it becomes statistically more relevant for a recount..say 2000 votes out of 2 million..of course this doesnt account for the acorn vote fraud which is what this will ultimately be about
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ningyo1 year, 1 month ago
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i know its hard for dems to understand all the big words...but it has to do with fractal statistical theory...its like trying to measure a coastline..from 600 miles up it looks like one smooth easy to measure line...from 100 miles you start to see all the little coves and inlets--with me so far?--from 1 mile up the real small foot wide irregularities show up--at walking distance the coastline is infinite in length--this is the idea of diminishing accuracy the closer you get to the subject in terms of making a finite determination--got that...good--practically speaking . you cant expect an accurate recount of 2 million votes with so little margin of error..people are human..they make mistakes..and some are crooks...and then theres acorn
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frctm51 year, 1 month ago
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Then please explain why the law requires a recount in most elections where the margin of victory is less than one percent. Are you saying that it is easier to accurately recount votes when there is a greater margin of victory on one side? Then when would a recount every be justified? Your theory makes no sense and your analogy does not apply. We are talking about a binomial distribution with only two possible outcomes. Success or failure not the contours of a coast line. What you're thinking of is something more akin to linear regression. If I had a pile of ten dollar bills and another pile of twenty dollar bills would it be more or less likely that I would have an accurate tally of each denomination if I counted each pile once or if I did it twice? If your theory were correct, then every audit would be wrong. The entire profession of accounting would be discredited.
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willottica1 year, 1 month ago
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If the level of discrepancy is continued throughout the state (i.e. one vote switched per 7700 votes counted), then Franken will win by some 500 votes in a recount. But if that level of discrepancy continues, there should be some serious investigations as to why errors are consistently favoring the Republican side.
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More optimistically (i.e. hoping that there was not some sort of systemic skewing of results towards Coleman), statistic error of the machines could swing this in either direction.
An error rate of 2/7,700 (1/40th of 1%) is incredibly small, and very accurate, but when the difference in votes is only 206/2,422,924 (1/120th of 1%) it's at least 3 times too much error to know who won.
I personally think that Franken would be great in the Senate, because he would likely make fun of himself and others, and get the other Senators to take themselves a little less seriously. The thing humor does is allow us to see our faults without being quite so defensive about it. And senators have to be able to recognize their faults before they'll be able to start fixing them.
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