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Posted by: Tangent001 11 months, 2 weeks ago

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Tangent00111 months, 2 weeks ago

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For arctic explorers sure, but not as a trade route.

"The Arctic pack ice prevents regular marine shipping throughout the year, but climate change is reducing the pack ice, and this Arctic shrinkage may eventually make the waterways more navigable."

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- capecoralMComment removed: Retracted by user6 Replies
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    Tangent00111 months, 2 weeks ago
    
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    I'm not saying there won't be benefits of opening the NW Passage. I'm saying the fact that the passage will be open as a trade route, since, well, ever, is indeed evidence that the extent of summer ice is receding.
    
    Thanks for the link, BTW. Great info. Check out July 2008 vs. July 1979.
    
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    greenmac11 months, 2 weeks ago
    
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    Here is some good reading for those who want to know about sea ice. The sea comes and goes with the seasons... the problem is it is going earlier and is gone longer. This changes a lot of things...animal breeding and migration are affected as well as the ability to forage. For the Inuit if changes how they move about.
    
    This article is about 5 years old.. the problem has escalated since then...
    
    http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic57-3-299...
    
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      greenmac11 months, 2 weeks ago
      
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      This is an easier read...and includes simulations.
      FTA
      
      As of September 8 2008, Environment Canada analysis indicates that sea ice over the Northern Hemisphere is approaching its minimum of approximately 4.9 million sq. km. which is below normal but still about 0.4 million sq. km. above the record low ice cover in 2007. This will probably make this summer’s sea ice cover the second lowest summer ice cover since hemispheric sea ice records have been kept (at least 50 years). Both the North West Passage (via the Canadian Archipelago) and North East Passage (via the East Siberian Sea) are ice free. (Click here to see a comparison with the last 5-years)"
      
      http://www.socc.ca/seaice/seaice_current_e.cfm
      
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      - capecoralMComment removed: Retracted by user2 Replies
        
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        greenmac11 months, 2 weeks ago
        
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        I believe what you said there is incorrect. The satellite data just ushered in new methods of "viewing" the field. Records have been kept for many years. The thickness of the field is not determined through the use of satellite pictures. Yes the passage has been open over the years but not to extent that we have seen lately.
        
        There were several attempts to get through the passage ...some failed others took years...... yes there were successes...such as the st Roche and Ice breakers as well. To compare the passage today to what was is an unfair comparison and leads people to believe that the passage was ice free way back...not so.
        
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        greenmac11 months, 2 weeks ago
        
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        "While very warm temperatures were also seen in the Arctic in the 1930s, the loss of Arctic sea ice observed in the past 20 years has no precedent in the historical record. For example, the fabled Northwest Passage opened in 2007, an event that has not occurred since at least 1497, and probably for a much longer span of time. Between 1979 (the year satellite imagery of the North Pole first became available) and 2006, Arctic sea ice extent shrunk by about 10% in winter (4% per decade) and 20% in summer (8% per decade). The loss of sea ice, when plotted on a graph (Figure 3), roughly followed a straight line over time. There were a few noisy ups and downs, reflecting colder and warmer years. A trend that approximately follows a straight line is called a "linear" trend. A continued linear summertime 8% per decade loss of sea ice would leave the summertime Arctic Ocean ice-free by 2100. The ocean would still partially freeze in winter, with about 50% of the ocean covered with ice."
        
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  BB6411 months, 2 weeks ago
  
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  The Antarctic continues to embarrass the prognosticators as it exhibits very strong sea ice growth. In fact the ice is growing by significant amounts (a total of 17% since 1979) and in direct defiance of the orders issued by the computer models.
  
  For the month of December both sea ice extent and concentration were up significantly over 1979 (the first year satellite measurements were available for the full year), 17.3% for ice extent & 18.3% for ice concentration.
  
  Granted this is the Antarctic but we're seeing increases in ice at the South Pole. This does not fit into any of your computer models.
  
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