The Cheap Gas Dilemma »
Posted By STONERS 1 year ago in Business & FinanceAre gasoline prices headed higher? It’s very probable if you consider the previous 2008 history, the fact that OPEC is announcing that they are cutting crude oil production and refiners have to start producing the summer months' gasoline inventories.
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birdsabound1 year ago
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Folks who would participate in ANY sort of "ECONOMIC/POLITICAL" discussion these days should be generally aware of a NUMBER of basic realities regarding ALTERNATIVE-ENERGY matters --- which in reality SURELY enter into any comprehensive (or even casual!) discussion of the "Bailout" of "our" Economy. I submit that all the "political" blather notwithstanding, "we" will not ACTUALLY begin to see the end of this recession / depression unless and until a WHOLE NEW TECHNOLOGY begins to actually emerge and to be TAKEN SERIOUSLY by ALL of "us", in general --- and the now-SHRINKING "industrial sector" actually EMBRACES it and begins to RE-TOOL all those plants that are now being SHUTTERED and starts to ACTUALLY BUILD products that IMPLEMENT concepts discussed in the following:
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"Our" ADDICTIVE DEPENDENCY ON OTHER PEOPLES’ OIL??
The Chevy VOLT is an ELECTRIC car with a battery that will carry it about FORTY miles. Thereafter, a GASOLINE ENGINE kicks in. But that motor is NOT coupled MECHANICALLY to the wheels; they are powered ELECTRICALLY (only). Instead it DRIVES A GENERATOR that supplies the drive motors! --- and if you erroneously imagine that no “electric” vehicle can get above 30 miles per hour or get out of the back yard --- well, BE ADVISED: All modern HEAVY (”DIESEL-ELECTRIC”) LOCOMOTIVES, and also the VERY LARGEST SHIPS are (and HAVE been FOR MANY YEARS!) driven by electric motors. And the speed record for ELECTRIC-powered cars out at Bonneville is somewhere north of 400 Miles per Hour last I heard.
Now statistics show that fully 75% of all auto use is “short haul” runs that would fit within the 40-mile range of the battery, SO MOST OF THE TIME THE GASOLINE ENGINE WILL NEVER RUN! The battery would be charged from the power grid, or (better yet, eventually) YOUR OWN PHOTOVOLTAIC ARRAY or WIND-POWERED-GENERATOR LOW-VOLTAGE AUXILIARY SYSTEM when the vehicle is not in use. Using ELECTRICAL power could render it PRACTICAL to DIRECTLY harness the abundant but intermittent / highly variable FREE energy that rains down on us perpetually FROM THE SUN --- which “we” “traditionally” WASTE! Absent such FREE power, about 80 cents worth of "grid" power would “fill the tank”. Beyond that, fuel consumption would depend on how the car is used --- but for ordinary usage the internal combustion engine WOULD BE ONLY MINIMALLY ACTIVE. And one also simply DISPENSES with the whole elaborate TRANSMISSION and DRIVE TRAIN --- utilizing simple, relatively UNbreakable MAGNETIC (rather than complex, fallible MECHANICAL) drive elements! THINK OF ALL THE SAVINGS!
It would now be appropriate for "Government" to fund GM --- at BARELY above "subsistence levels", to sustain ONLY those "life functions" of the moribund "patient" that TRULY, QUICKLY COMPEL evolutionary progress AWAY from the currently FAILING "business model"! That support needs to be VERY SPECIFIC, being PURPOSEFULLY directed toward ACTUAL IMPLEMENTATION, BRINGING INTO PRODUCTION, and more generally PUBLIC POPULARIZATION (through EDUCATION, and indirect tax-forbearance SUBSIDIZATION!) of such initiatives as the VOLT --and ALSO, more broadly, such OTHER "outside-the-box" alternatives as the Toyota / Hyundai / Ford pioneering of REGENERATIVE-BRAKING automotive ENERGY CONSERVATION technology!
Moreover, it ALSO needs to begin to dawn on people that it will be advantageous to MARRY THE “REGENERATIVE-BRAKING” AND "ELECTRIC CAR" TECHNOLOGIES: doing so would about DOUBLE the RANGE of any battery-powered system, just as it doubles the efficiency and range of the all-gasoline-powered Toyota Prius (which has a 21.5 miles-per-gallon engine that ends up achieving around 45 mpg!). Maybe THAT initiative is what CHRYSLER should be "funded" to focus upon! (A little good-old-fashioned COMPETITION could be a VERY GOOD THING!)
So: ELIMINATE PERHAPS FULLY SEVEN-EIGHTHS(!) of all the importation of oil to supply gasoline to run “our” automobiles ... now THERE is FOREIGN OIL INDEPENDENCE for you! And it really COULD (and SHOULD!!) have been done MANY YEARS AGO NOW ALREADY!)
SUCH are the sorts of initiatives needed to ACTUALLY IGNITE the "GREEN-COLLAR ECONOMIC REVOLUTION" which, if generally embraced, could INTELLIGENTLY, CONSTRUCTIVELY restore the economic health of this society (and would SURELY be preferable to any cockamamie WAR like the one whereby "we" "escaped" the so-called "Great" Depression!).
Now if my ideas come across as "HERETICAL", then so be it. But you DON'T successfully treat a patient who is DYING OF LUNG CANCER by BUYING HIM OR HER MORE CIGARETTES! I SURE hope the OBAMA crowd is smart enough to "get" that! EVIDENTLY THEIR PREDECESSORS WERE NOT!
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But what more can ultimately be done EVEN BEYOND ALL OF THAT??
First of all, one can generate HYDROGEN quite EASILY, and we have an EXTREMELY ABUNDANT SUPPLY of the stuff! --- by merely DRIVING AN ELECTRIC CURRENT THROUGH ORDINARY WATER (with a little salt dissolved in it to render it electrically conductive, or perhaps simply use salt water taken from the ocean!). The energy delivered by the current BREAKS APART H2O MOLECULES, releasing the hydrogen and oxygen, which can easily be separately collected.
Better not let them get back together again too rapidly, though, because then the energy that was delivered and stored up GRADUALLY over a period of time in the process of separating them is re-released INSTANTANEOUSLY --- which would constitute an EXPLOSION! Thankfully, though, there ARE materials that can serve as a "fire control system" (of the SAFETY variety)! They are called ANHYDRIDES, and they aDsorb (NOT aBsorb!) hydrogen --- meaning that a PHYSICAL bond (not a CHEMICAL one) forms between free hydrogen molecules (H2) and the anhydride material --- ON ITS SURFACES (ONLY). But the stuff is PULVERIZED, which INCREASES THE SURFACE AREA TREMENDOUSLY. It is just the principle of the old-fashioned GAS MASK.
METAL anhydrides are alloys of two different metals, one of them being either of the elements LITHIUM (which is prohibitively scarce for MASS applications) or NICKEL (which is much more plentiful). This material, ground up into a fine powder, is confined in a canister --- so that the total SURFACE AREA within a SMALL VOLUME becomes HUGE. It operates RATHER LIKE A SPONGE TO "SOAK UP" FREE HYDROGEN, keeping it contained. If the vessel should rupture, only a FRACTION of the “charged” (hydride) material will be immediately exposed to oxygen from the air, so that it would be subject to catching fire. THUS IT WILL BURN, (NOW do you understand what is going on in those faulty flammable Lithium-ion batteries in some laptop computers?), BUT IT DOESN'T GO BOOM! And research has ALSO been done on CERAMIC anhydrides, which could perhaps turn out to be even BETTER from the standpoint of storage capacity per unit of weight of the material involved.
The system works at a MOLECULAR level rather like the MACROSCOPIC-scale "fire control" system used in Nascar Auto Racing. Ever wonder why when crashes occur during races all that volatile ethanol fuel does not "go off", immolating drivers and spectators alike?? It is because the fuel tanks are not merely emply vessels carrying liquid bombs! Actually, they are filled with a "stiff-sponge" matrix that "soaks up" the LIQUID fuel in the same sort of manner, keeping it relatively under control if it SHOULD catch fire!
Vehicular FUEL TANKS will need to employ such materials for basic fire safety!
One "frees up" H2 from its anhydride "storage matrix" at a CONTROLLED rate by simply WARMING the stuff a bit to drive off the merely-LOOSELY-bound H2 molecules from their adsorption-effected PHYSICAL bonding!
By the way, NONE OF THIS IS "EXOTIC NEW TECHNOLOGY". It has all been "piloted" by then Daimler-Benz, under a German Government-sponsored research project, being used to SUCCESSFULLY OPERATE AN ENTIRE FLEET OF CITY BUSES IN FRANKFORT, GERMANY FOR A PERIOD OF A YEAR, WAY BACK IN 1979-'80!! (That's 29 YEARS AGO now already!)
Note that the anhydride storage matrix material is NOT CONSUMED. It simply operates like a sponge that is used over and over again. It IS necessary, though, to guard against CONTAMINATION by extraneous junk that could interfere with H2 adsorption. And THAT consideration militates in favor of a CLOSED-CYCLE system, IN WHICH THE SAME ACTUAL “RAW” MATERIAL IS USED OVER AND OVER AGAIN IN THE 2H2O < -- > 2H2 + O2 BACK-AND-FORTH REACTION --- being used not to brainlessly burn in an internal combustion engine (I.C.E.), but (rather) to supply FUEL CELLS to RE-generate ELECTRICITY. The hydrogen could be generated in situ (i.e. IN the car itself) normally --- allowing for a system of exchangeable cylinders at stations along the highways in order to provide for long-distance travel.
Now even just BURNING hydrogen thus extracted in an ICE (as in the German project) would not add any pollution, no CO2, and very little NOx-complex greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. However, the "ASH" of burning hydrogen IS WATER --- which, THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT A POLLUTANT, IS ITSELF, TO SOME EXTENT, A GREENHOUSE GAS! It is thus BETTER FOR YET ANOTHER KIND OF REASON AS WELL to NOT directly “combust” it --- but, rather, to use it CLOSED-CYCLE to energize fuel cells that then drive electric motors. So: ELECTRICITY IN, ELECTRICITY OUT --- with a VERY high-energy-density CHEMICAL fuel serving as a “CARRIER” to TRANSPORT temporarily-STORED energy!
But the ELECTRICAL energy used to PRODUCE that hydrogen NEEDS TO ITSELF BE GENERATED CLEANLY! If the power used to produce it comes from BURNING COAL DOWN AT THE POWER PLANT (in the manner of our existing, “conventional” technology), then the situation becomes even worse than burning GASOLINE as we are now doing! For you ADD to the pollution generated “back at the plant” MORE THAN YOU SAVE IN THE CAR!
The incomprehensible (to most people) REALITY is that NOT ONLY DO WE NEED TO WEAN “OUR“SELVES OFF OF "OUR“ ADDICTIVE DEPENDENCY ON OTHER PEOPLES' OIL --- BUT WE ALSO NEED TO GET OFF OF EVEN “OUR OWN“ COAL AND OTHER “FOSSIL“ FUELS AS WELL! And THAT, of course, bespeaks a COMPLETE AND QUITE RADICAL RECONSTITUTION OF "OUR" ENTIRE ECONOMY! --- QUITE UNTHINKABLE TO A GREAT MANY "ESTABLISHED INTERESTS"!
And THAT is about where things now stand.
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So then, what OTHER alternatives exist --- besides abjectly renouncing, or at least severely scaling back, our technology and reverting to a mere “subsistence” existence?? Well, contrary to the MISconception that seems to be generally cultivated by “defenders” of the status quo, there are MANY possibilities. But the general “popular” perception of things stands really quite grossly SKEWED AND DISTORTED --- a cynic might well suspect DELIBERATELY, by many who have “interests” centered on the OLDER technology --- through the “selective” encouragement / discouragement of “public awareness” of various technological concepts and initiatives.
At this point, for instance, everyone pretty well understands HYDRO-ELECTRIC power generation, which IS, as virtually everyone knows, actually HEAVY-DUTY SOLAR power --- since it is the SUN that actually generates the RAIN. And that clearly IS, indeed, a very VALUABLE ADJUNCT to “fossil” fuels for the generation of elelctricity, as is certainly generally understood and accepted.
But there seems to be a rather glaring VACUUM of knowledge in the “general public consciousness” about OTHER “BIG-MUSCLE” solar technologies --- somehow the preponderance of people here seem to be GENERALLY INCOGNIZANT of a number of MAJOR possibilities and projects, and they have evidently been beguiled into supposing that the only alternatives are windmills and photovoltaic panels. Most somehow seem to have never even heard, for instance, of the Sandia Labs Solar Towers --- which were constructed way back in the seventies and eighties in connection with initiatives to generate LARGE amounts of electrical power --- not by means of windmills or solar photovoltaic or thermal panels but rather by the much less "exotic" idea of simply focusing the sun's heat using MIRRORS to generate the STEAM to drive large turbines!
Evidently (so I hear from some of the engineering people who were involved), one such system, a 25 MW (that's 25 million watts of power!) unit, STILL OPERATES --- on the grid out west. But the FUNDING for such alternative energy technology that had been supported way back under Carter was CUT OFF under the MISguided MISmanagement of Ronnie Ray-gun and company --- who much preferred to “divert” advanced technology off into playing "Star Wars"! And much work has also been on developing parabolic-dish energy gathering systems in which the sun’s rays are FOCUSED TO DRIVE STIRLING ENGINES --- which convert heat energy efficiently into mechanical motion. (But this concept only works, of course, while the sun shines!)
So today such "big-muscle" solar power (which DWARFS windmills and photovoltaic-panel technology --- valuable adjuncts in many LIMITED-POWER applications, but hardly the "MAIN DIET"!) --- has been left to OTHERS around the world to develop. And others elsewhere in the world HAVE been busy --- on SEVERAL DIFFERENT alternatives. We now have, for example, the EnviroMission "Solar Hotbox" technology, involving the heat of the sun being "bottled up" inside a HUGE "GREENHOUSE" (and in the ground beneath). HEATED AIR then rises inside a PYRAMIDAL structure, turning LARGE FANS as it exits back to the outside --- and these fans drive electrical generators. This system has the great merit of storing up enough energy DURING THE DAYTIME to KEEP THE FANS RUNNING ALL NIGHT LONG! That is, the ENERGY STORAGE RESERVOIR TO AVERAGE OUT THE DIURNAL INTERMITTENCY AND VARIABILITY OF THE PRIMARY DRIVE POWER (SUNLIGHT) IS IMPLICIT IN THE SYSTEM ITSELF. So no other expensive, lossy "buffer energy storage" (e.g. pumped-hydro installations elsewhere on the grid, etc.) are needed!
I understand that a 50 MW installation of that sort has operated successfully for a NUMBER OF YEARS already in SPAIN, and a 200MW installation is now "in the works" for northern Australia! "We", by comparison, have plans on the drawing boards for a number of new COAL-FIRED plants, no doubt with modern POLLUTION-control technology, but evidently NO meaningful CARBON SEQUESTRATION to prevent Carbon Dioxide emissions! Carbon Dioxide is, of course, NOT a POLLUTANT --- being, after all, in effect "breathed in" by plants as the "other half" of the "Grand Balance of Nature" Carbon Cycle, whereby plants and animals provide each other with oxygen and carbon dioxide. But a LARGE POWER PLANT is NOT MERELY ANOTHER ANIMAL, and has, by comparison a HUGE "METABOLISM".
And when the natural balance of things is MARKEDLY SHIFTED, the excess of CO2, which is a "greenhouse gas", acts to "trap" more of the sun's incoming energy as HEAT --- to which that gas is OPAQUE, so that the heat cannot re-radiate back out into space. And so the Earth gets HOTTER --- the infamous GLOBAL WARMING that drives more intense HURRICANES and OTHER STORMS, and MELTS THE POLAR ICECAPS (which by some estimates could perhaps FLOOD OUT UP TO A THIRD OF ALL HUMANITY that tends to concentrate along seacoasts).
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Finally, the OTHER sort of alternative that must now be (re-)considered is NUCLEAR technology, with all of ITS problems. But, thankfully, here too there are some new departures on the horizon.
First of all, we now know how to build Nuclear Fission reactors in ways that are at least INTRINSICALLY IMMUNE TO ANY POSIBILITY OF MELTDOWN a la Chernobyl or (almost) Three Mile Island.
It is AT LEAST possible to fabricate “the pile" in such a way that the density of the fissile material simply is not great enough so that if there is a loss-of-coolant accident (or maybe attack?) the temperature in the core would "go to the moon". The most promising-sounding proposals along these lines involve encasing pieces of the fissile material in CARBIDE spheres about the size of billiard balls, instead of in the classic "fuel rod" assemblies. These are then added to a HORIZONTALLY ORIENTED BED. The density of the material is much lower, so that the TEMPERATURES that would be attained if the heat-exchange fluid flow were to fail for any reason THE CONSEQUENCES WOULD NOT BE UTTERLY CATASTROPHIC! And such a design ALSO has the advantage that REFUELING can be accomplished on a “DISTRIBUTED” basis, by simply adding NEW "fuel balls" at the top of the bed while pulling out old ones off the bottom --- SO THAT IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO SHUT THE SYSTEM DOWN COMPLETELY FOR MONTHS ON END IN ORDER TO GET THE JOB DONE.
Any NEW dinosaurs of the FISSION type that “we” might build should SURELY, at least, implement THESE concepts!
What is far MORE promising, however, in the SLIGHTLY longer term, is the upcoming THERMONUCLEAR initiative --- the ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) --- which is PRESENTLY UNDERWAY, with construction having begun at Cadarache, in FRANCE, in 2008. (By the way --- WHY NOT HERE, do you suppose?) It is being built by a CONSORTIUM of EIGHT MAJOR NATIONS (including France, Germany, Japan, China, India, Russia, Italy, --- and oh yes (though most here seem to have never even HEARD of it) the good old USA is ALSO participating. This beast will produce 500 Megawatts of electrical power (and about 150,000 French JOBS!) within about ten years.
This is accomplished NOT by FISSION of a heavy atom like Uranium, which produces all manner of subatomic JUNK pieces in the breakup, some of which remain radioactive for hundreds of thousands of years as they gradually transmute on down through a series of elements ending up eventually as LEAD --- resulting in the need to try to find some way to "safely" "dispose" of them over that (very long) interim. THERMONUCLEAR power is, rather, acccomplished by the FUSION of the very LIGHTEST atoms --- HYDROGEN again --- to make HELIUM --- which is NOT radioactive (and is not even CHEMICALLY active, being in fact an inert gas!).
That is the NUCLEAR reaction that powers the SUN ITSELF! It operates (in DEUTERIUM that has merely been filtered out of the OCEAN!) at a temperature of about 23 Million degrees! Moreover, with a "fire" THAT hot, it might even be possible to come up with some process to "incinerate" the inventory of junk left over from all those URANIUM FISSION DINOSAURS! That is, this initiative could perhaps lead to a way of "cleaning up" our "legacy" mess!
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Now I hope all of that overview might help to BROADEN SOME OF THE THINKING that is hopefully BEGINNING to take hold in the minds of at least SOME people on “the boards" --- so that they can be less vulnerable to MISconceptions that often seem to be cultivated (wittingly or unwittingly, it makes no difference) by many who would in effect “promote” “AGENDAS” of various sorts that are generally calculated to “advance” their OWN “interests” --- rather than those of the actual collective general welfare! -
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chevydog1 year ago
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birds -- Nice essay, though I got a little thrown by the caps. It was long enough that someone might think I wrote it.
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Just a few comments -- not in the spirit that what you say is wrong or that we shouldn't be doing anything; more like it's not all that easy.
I blow hot and cold on whether behavior changes should be a necessary part of our energy policy. After all, it's partly because we didn't change behavior that we find ourselves where we are. Still don't know how much of it can or should be assumed.
Personally, my antennae droop when someone says "They do this in Europe". Yes, we're familiar with it, and it gives us a frame of reference. But in terms of population density, distribution, and distances, it's not really the same game as the US. We can transfer generation technology; but distribution is not nearly the same thing.
Some gases are relatively easy to transport and store. Hydrogen is neither. It embrittles metals, doesn't stay in compressors well, and generally has poor cryological properties for using as fuel. Even if it's stored in hydrides, it has to be gotten from point A to point B in required volumes. The good news is that there's lots of room for available improvement. The flip side is that there's lots of room precisely because few people have taken hydrogen seriously.
Im not sure of your attitude twoards global warming. You did mention once that CO2 is not a pollutant; then there was all sorts of maybe qualifying wordage. IMHO, counting CO2 as a pollutant is needlessly hindering our efforts in the energy area. A clarification would help, though that might bring some of the GW zealots down on you.
Assuming for the moment that we could populate the landscape with 50 mW solar power stations, it remains true that these things still need care and feeding and ways to get electic to users. Which requires capital and organization. Nothing undoable ; but I think that this part hasn't been thought out enough. Maybe it's too early in the game.
It's also a private bug with me that most of the solar generation demos are set in the West and/or Southwest. To me, it's sort of cherry-picking data. Believe we have to see demos in places like e.g. IL, OH and NY.
I'm not totally averse to the term "energy" policy. But the more I think about it, the more I wonder whether our problems aren't fundamentally hydocarbon driven. We gripe about gasoline and home heating prices; electricity comes into the conversation mostly as a way to supplant fuels. So maybe effort ought to be biased toward improving transportation and building heating improvement.
I've always wondered some how much economics ought to enter into this. Think I'm slowly coming to believe that economics should be a factor in the electric part of the problem; but maybe not in the fuels part.
Lastly, any energy policy that depends on my typing accurately is doomed to miserable failure. -
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