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Posted by: nostalgia 7 months, 4 weeks ago
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nostalgia7 months, 4 weeks ago
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It was just announced on TV that a tourist from Mexico is now in a hospital in Florida and has been diagnosed with the swine flu
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The person visited Disney World
Isn't it time to stop all but absolutely necessary travel between Mexico and the US?
How many people did this one person infect - airplane, hotel, Disney etc etc
Economic concerns are trumping sound epidemic controls
Here is the report online:
http://www.wftv.com/news/19311020/detail.html#--
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willottica7 months, 4 weeks ago
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"Economic concerns are trumping sound epidemic controls" -- and you want fear to trump personal liberty.
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More people smuggle drugs across the border than smuggle Swine Flu. Probably even more do so unknowingly. And there may even be more deaths caused by it. Does the drug trade necessitate shutting down the borders completely?-
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nostalgia7 months, 4 weeks ago
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"you want fear to trump personal liberty"
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No I want sensible epidemic controls
Simply asking people have you been sick or are you sick now and handing out sheets of paper with symptoms is not control
This is what you see when economies are so dependent upon trade. Economic considerations trump human concerns
How many people in this country are you willing to see die in order to maintain trade?
Even the State Dept has issued a warning suggesting people limit all but essential travel to Mexico. Yet where are the calls to limit travel from Mexico into the US? Does that make even an iota of sense to you - don't travel TO the country with with the highest incidence yet permit people FROM that country to move freely into the US?
We already know who is most likely to die from this flu - people between ages 25 and 45 according to what we are seeing in Mexico
I wouldn't be surprised to see this statistic increase in even lower age groups
They have also failed to tell people if someone in the house has the flu, the other people in the house should stay home - no work, school etc
Otherwise you are going to have people from the infected house spreading the flu to others
Common sense is all that is required yet we aren't seeing anyone willing to step forward and give the needed advice-
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willottica7 months, 4 weeks ago
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But rates of infection and even death rate from this flu are, if you look at recent news, not unlike the rates from ordinary flu strains. There are 6,000 flu deaths in Canada each year... so far none from the Swine Flu. I would assume that this number is about 10 times as high in the states. With one confirmed death: of a toddler, the age group most prone to death from other flu strains.
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Before labeling an "epidemic" there should be some reason to believe it is one.-
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nostalgia7 months, 3 weeks ago
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"Before labeling an "epidemic" there should be some reason to believe it is one."
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You better pay closer attention
Swine flu: pandemic alert level raised to level 5
he World Health Organisation tonight raised the pandemic alert level to five out of six after the continued spread of swine flu world wide.
Margaret Chan, the organisation's director-general, said tonight: "I have decided to raise the current level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to phase 5.
"Influenza pandemics must be taken seriously precisely because of their capacity to spread rapidly to every country in the world."
Making a call to governments worldwide, she said: "This change to a higher phase of alert is a signal to governments, to ministries of health and other industries, to the pharmaceutical industry and business industry that certain actions must be undertaken now with increased urgency and at an accelerated pace."
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and...
What does Level 5 mean?
Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.
Because governments refused to act at the early stage by shutting down people leaving Mexico, the entire world will suffer
Economics trumped human suffering and life
They know what they have to do when an epidemic/pandemic threatens
Have you heard ANY official of the national govt say that if a member of the household comes down with this flu EVERYONE in the house needs to stay home - quarantine
That was one toddler death and according to the local news the family was from Mexico
They crossed the border at Brownsville TX to get the child medical care
The child was so sick that they flew the child to Houston
The most susceptible to death from the flu is usually the very young and the elderly
That is not what is being seen in Mexico
According to the reports here in Texas, most of the deaths have been in the 25-45 year old group
As I posted before I'm won't be surprised to see the death rate rise in the younger ages as well
"There are 6,000 flu deaths in Canada each year"
Normal rate of deaths from a regular flu is under 1%
According to an article I read "Mexican officials informed the Canadian health agency that the "case-fatality rate was relatively high" and that most cases involved healthy adults between the ages of 25 and 44."-
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willottica7 months, 3 weeks ago
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Yes, based on the number 159 out of 2500, the case-fatality rate is high. But it seems like the infection of only 2500 people, when the virus originated in Mexico City (over 8 million in the city itself, metropolitan area > 22 million), is far less than it should be if the virus is as contagious as a level 5 would indicate. So they're not detecting as many cases as there are, perhaps only testing those who are seriously ill for it. How many mild cases have gone unreported?
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Compare that to the rest of the world, where everyone with a sniffle is being tested, and you see MUCH lower incidence of serious cases. In fact, if as you say, the toddler death was from Mexico, too, then there have been zero non-Mexican fatalities!
I don't care what the WHO says, it sounds like a case of [bark > bite].
Swine Flu in Perspective:
http://daily.sightline.org/daily_score/archive/200...-
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nostalgia7 months, 3 weeks ago
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"when the virus originated in Mexico City (over 8 million in the city itself, metropolitan area > 22 million)"
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Where are you getting your information?
The 39-year-old woman who was the first to die in Mexico's swine flu epidemic spent the last eight days of her life going from clinic to clinic to find out what was wrong with her but doctors were baffled.
The woman, from the southern state of Oaxaca, died shortly after being admitted to hospital as an emergency case. Experts only identified the virus that killed her 10 days later.
The woman, who worked as a census taker in the city of Oaxaca, became ill with what was she thought was a severe case of pneumonia on April 4 but was not admitted to hospital until April 12.
Mexican health officials are still scrambling to understand how the illness broke out. Attention has focused on a town in Veracruz state near a large pig farm where another confirmed case of swine flu in a human was detected.
But Lezana said the presence of Eurasian swine flu genes in the H1N1 virus makes it unlikely that the disease originated in a Mexican pig farm.
Oaxaca is one of Mexico's poorest states, but victims of the flu have been found in wealthier areas including the capital.
The cause of the woman's death was not determined until April 23 when a previously unknown flu virus combining strains of swine, bird and human flus was identified.
http://www.reuters.com/article/lifestyleMolt/idUST...
This looks like a very early case - April 4th
This is ~2 weeks before the reports of cases were coming out of Mexico City
As far as the "zero non-Mexican fatalities" it's far too early to be complacent about this
According to a report from yesterday 7 people in the US have now been hospitalized
That's a large number considering the number of reported cases
According to the CDC:
"I fully expect we will see deaths from this infection," as swine flu cases are investigated, said Richard Besser, acting director of the federal Centers for Disease Control.
Governments are trying to prevent panic but are failing to act to contain the spread-
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willottica7 months, 3 weeks ago
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Okay, so the origin may not be Mexico City, but there is an outbreak there, so my point is not invalid.
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A large number considering the number of reported cases? Maybe. Or maybe, like most flus, people either don't bother going to the doctor until it's already quite serious (I wouldn't if I lived in a land of for-profit healthcare) or they go and the doctor tells them it's just a cold or just the regular flu, and doesn't bother to test further.
You say it's far too early to be complacent; I say it's far too early to start panicking. And since it's already escaped from Mexico, there's really no way to contain it by banning travel to/from the country.
"I fully expect we will see deaths from this infection" -- Not exactly a stunning portent. I'd be surprised if ANY flu strain didn't cause some deaths.
By all means though, keep yourself and your family away from the public for the next several months - just in case.
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