Stealing the Iranian Election »
Posted By Radiofreeeuropa 4 months, 3 weeks ago in News
Having examined vote counts in stolen elections, there are a few things to look for. One, as you have started to do, is to look for logical irregularities, such as just over 50% for Ahmed..etc in regions where he would be expected to do poorly. Another is the Black Swan effect. With actual rather than fabricated data, there will be anomalies, spikes if you prefer, in precinct by precinct tabulations. Falsified data tends to be smoothed out so as not to arouse suspicion. Finally, look for irregularities in undervotes or overvotes. In a hotly contested local race, there may be as many votes in the race for Trash Commissioner as there are for the presidential election. If a local race is not contested, many people do not bother to vote, casting ballots only for their presidential candidate. People who commit vote fraud overlook this fact and tend towards filling in all ballots.
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Radiofreeeuropa4 months, 3 weeks ago
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Though I would not be surprised if international press got it wrong, that it's polling was skewed towards Tehran and more urban educated areas. Yet I think the strongest evidence of fraud is here-
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http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/13/faulty-election... -
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gamahuche4 months, 3 weeks ago
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O.K. as far as it goes, RFE!
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The data about the "surprising" voting figures in particular is compelling
But I'm going to have to post a competing version from someone who was on the ground, the redoubtable Robert Fisk which ESPECIALLY challenges the idea that there was ittle protest concerning the "result". -
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ur-land-is-my-land4 months, 3 weeks ago
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What I see is happening is more than just a vote fraud. This is more of a white Coup d'etat with a much wider agenda.
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My guess is that the players AHmadienjad and his religious mentor Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi (Iranian version of Pat Robertson+Jesse Helms) and his gang including Ahmadienjad had conspired to once and for all get rid of the opposition , they had conspired to eliminate Rafsanjani , the head of Assembly of Expert which can unseat supreme leader by a simple vote among its members.
The roots of this conflict goes to the very dogmatic belief of Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi who believes that Iran should be a Islamic Government not an Islamic Republic. What is the difference?
In Islamic Republic , the supreme leader get his legitimacy from people, in this case through, through electing members of assembly of experts by people’s vote and they in turn vote among themselves to pick a Supreme Leader (Vali Faghih) .
However in Mesbah’s view, legitimacy of Vali Faghi, the supreme leader comes from God and not from people. While this might sound a bit self serving and even humorous, it has some unnerving effects on the ground since the same legitimacy issue applies to presidency or any member who is in favor with the Supreme leader. If Mr.X is a favorite of Supreme leader, in Mesbah’s view, then he should be elected and if not possible by vote, should be selected. Since a post that calls for election can not be filled with selection of the candidate , (illegal) then Mesbah is known to have given Fatwas that it is ok to cheat in election and fraud the vote in order to place the a candidate in power who is , in his mind, favor ite of Supreme Leader. Why ? Because supreme leader has his legitimacy from God (in his version) and his favorite therefore enjoyes the legitimacy granted by God too and therefore rigging the votes in this case
Not only is not such a bad thing, in fact it is a duty for a Muslim (this is Mesbah’s version)
This is why everytime there is a Mesbah candidate, the other side has to make sure they don’t rig the votes. In fact in this election, before it was done, some groups publicly had asked from different Ayatollahs who can issue fatwas to answer the question : is it ok to cheat in election and rig the votes? And they had asked them to issue fatwas . This question was aimed at offsetting any rumors that Mesbah had ordered his followers to cheat. -
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ur-land-is-my-land4 months, 3 weeks ago
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In this election , however , I believe Mesbah and his gang decided to go the whole nine yard. First Ahmadeinajad in his debate , in front of 50 million viewers called Rafsanjani a corrupt politician and said the same thing about his children, he also named other Ayatollah as corrupt too and named names. While it was obvious that he was breaking the law ,(since none of those people have been charged nor convicted for corruption in any court) that did not seem to bother him. It turns out this was part of the plan, character assassination first and then maybe remove him somehow from the head of Assembly of Expert. Rafsanjani , as sharp as he is, smelled rat and wrote an open letter to Supreme Leader, a rude letter, in which he skipped the greetings at the beginning and at the end, and compared Ahamadinejad to Monafaqin, a terrorist organization that murdered 16,000 Iranians by all sort of vilence and now is headed by Masoud Rajavi. He warned Supreme Leader that this will not stop at him,(Rafsanajani) and its ultimate aim is to replace Supreme Leader. This letter, unprecedented in last thirty years of Iran’s political history, gave the first indication of what was happening.
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Then came some revelation in the form of a letter by some staffs of interior ministry which manages the election . This letter was sent to all the power centers in Iran. The letter said that months ago when Ahmadeinejad’s government conducted a secret poll , it found out that he was losing big and they decided to prevent that from happening. His interior minister replaced many of the managers and bosses and staff who were considered an obstacle to vote fraud, then the remaining staff had been given a sort of fatwa from Mesbah that if you think a candidate is more in line with Islamic values and deserves to be elected, then advocate him, if that failed, try to convince the ones who still want to vote for him to change their minds and if all this failed “do whatever that you have to do” meaning rigging the vote , since this “do whatever that you have to do” has been always interpreted as rigging the vote by Mesbah’s supporters. -
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fempatriot4 months, 3 weeks ago
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It sort of smacks of the "election" of George W. Bush, doesn't it? I watch a lot of Middle Eastern news, and it appeared that many Iranians wanted change. But, as Josef Stalin or someone once said, It's not who votes that counts but who counts the votes.
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ur-land-is-my-land4 months, 3 weeks ago
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I now believe strongly that Rafsanjani was up to this from the very beginning months ago. After all he has his men placed in every branch of government ministry and every center of power and you name it, he is quite sharp, and he must have known about this from long ago and he simply let Mesbah and Ahmadeinejad bring their own rope and hang themselves, something that so far they have done.
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I say this since from thousands of miles away from the scenes, I had smelled rat before the election and wrote to a friend of mine that this post election could go in many different ways including an all out civil war. If I , as an average person who reads papers, could sense this from here I am sure Rafsanjani had a better grasp of it. In Presidential debates Ahmadinejad who was already running low in polls, accomplished two things:
1.He totally energized his core supporters
2.He established himself as a selfish, arrogant, ignorant, little prick.
What is next? -
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ur-land-is-my-land4 months, 3 weeks ago
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This thing could blow in many ways including :
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-Rafsanjani gets under house arrest and some others and coup d’etat in which case all the hell could break loose.
-If determined that Supreme Leader had a dog in this race too, then Assembly of Experts could gather for a vote and unseat him
-Ahmadinejad and his mentor Mesbah could be arrested and charged with conspiracy and treason
-civil unrest can become widespread and things can get out of control
-Mousavi is declared winner and later he asks for some changes in constitution
-if armed forces get involved it could lead to civil war (unlikely at this point)
-there is a lot that is going on and Rafsanjani has been absolutely QUIET . No news from him and that only means one thing. He is VERY busy. A calm Rafsanjani manages to accomplish a lot of things, a BUSY Rafsanjani is a bad news for his opponents.
-Mousavi had asked his supporters to gather in front of his headquarters but today he postponed that
-He has written a letter to major Ayatollahas and asked them to break their silence.
-there has been a widespread arrest of opposition , reformers’ leaders.
-cell phones were out of service, many news sites have been blocked
-they just banned “honking horns” on streets of Tehran
Khamanie , the Supreme Leader is facing the BIGGEST and the most complicated CHALLENGE of his political life. No matter what, he will come out weaker at the end of this. That would allow Rafsanjani to once again call for creation of a Leading Council instead of one Supreme Leader. Rafsanjani and Mousavio have many supporters among the ranks and files and mid level commanders of Revolutionary Guards and Baseej (under supervision of Revolutionary Guards) .
I believe that Obama and for that matter the rest of the world community should wait and not accept Ahmadinejad’s election, they should not come out and reject it either. That would play into his hand.
The idea that in Iran presidency does not matter and Supreme Leader is the main figure (currently believed by Obama’s people) is fraud from the get go and is the absolutist approach. Supreme Leader has to listen to the president and hear his opinion and suggestion, not so easy for him to dismiss it .
And Supreme Leader has to listen to advice of many other people and once again here president and his men make a difference.-
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reallypsst4 months, 3 weeks ago
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Not so fast here pal,in a country where religion rules your notion that a their president calls the shots is total bs,the hardline regime will not loose control even in the event of civil war,you have to follow the history of the country starting with the shah !
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tehranchik4 months, 3 weeks ago
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huche and radio both submitted very knowledgeable pieces. Cole and Fisk are educated and 'up to the minute' on middle eastern affairs. Both have opinions and views of what is unfolding in Iran. Listen to both of them. They are both correct from where they stand.
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Numbers have been skewed and the voters have been blindsided by the outcome. If you've read any of the articles on the results - the numbers change from piece to piece.
Reformists are now being arrested - not a good thing for ahmadinejad to do. This will create more anger towards his regime whether it's legit or not.
Iran's people have been oppressed for too long and they are ready for change. If there is to be a new revolution I will be there in spirit with them. -
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Mutainia4 months, 3 weeks ago
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I don't think there ever was an election to steal. It was more of a trap to see who might try to over-throw the Mullahs IF something were to happen to Obama. As it turns out, the ancient 12 year old down a well is now sleeping soundly with a Heavenly, I mean, "Paradicely" smile on his face, knowing that the day looms where he will come up OUT of that well, join up with Jesus, and, open a can of holy Shi'ite whup ass on Christians and Jews. But ONLY if Iran can "whipe Israel off the map" after "most of Iran is destroyed in the process" (like Ahmadinajad said he's willing to accept).
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earthlingerer4 months, 3 weeks ago
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All the polls leading up to the election called Ahmedinejad the winner by a sizable margin.
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It's too bad the US and Israel have to learn that money won't change anything when people have principles and beliefs.
Ahmedinejad ran around the countryside throwing money at poor rural areas by the barrel. It simply became class warfare through the ballot box.
Iran is becoming the "big dog" in the region. It's time to wake up to that, and start treating them with the respect due, even if it means certain israeli bigots and liars will have to be kicked to the curb to do it. If you taunt a dog enough, it will bite you. -
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Radiofreeeuropa4 months, 3 weeks ago
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I don't know, I think Iran has been the giant in the area for a long time. Kept in check a bit by Saddam perhaps...until certain naive American ideologues decided to remove him. It has appeared to me that much of Iran was very ready for progress, I suppose it depends on what polls you read but the numbers remaining consistent regardless of region is shall we say "suspect" at least.
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