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Posted by: Progressive 6 months, 2 weeks ago

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  • 100%
    Progressive6 months, 2 weeks ago

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    Personally, I don't think it matters much whether Ahmadinejad or Mousavi won the election, since neither actually runs the country, but I wonder how the election results could be announced less than three hours after polls closed when paper ballots had to be counted.

    For what it's worth, I tend to give credence to the results as posted here, mindful of the caveats therewith :

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/iranian-ele...

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    • 67%
      hyperbola6 months, 2 weeks ago

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      Actually it is kind of amusing seeing all the Americans (and Israelis) supporting the Mullah's candidate (Musavi). After all, part of Ahmadinejad's popularity with "average" Iranians has been his outspoken criticism over his entire term of corrupt Mullahs.

      Here is an analysis from american mideast experts (and ex-NSC members) that hits the mark.

      Ahmadinejad won. Get over it

      http://www.propeller.com/story/2009/06/18/ahmadine...

      Without any evidence, many U.S. politicians and “Iran experts” have dismissed Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s reelection Friday, with 62.6 percent of the vote, as fraud.

      They ignore the fact that Ahmadinejad’s 62.6 percent of the vote in this year’s election is essentially the same as the 61.69 percent he received in the final count of the 2005 presidential election, when he trounced former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. The shock of the “Iran experts” over Friday’s results is entirely self-generated, based on their preferred assumptions and wishful thinking.

      ...Like much of the Western media, most American “Iran experts” overstated Mir Hossein Mousavi’s “surge” over the campaign’s final weeks. More important, they were oblivious — as in 2005 — to Ahmadinejad’s effectiveness as a populist politician and campaigner. American “Iran experts” missed how Ahmadinejad was perceived by most Iranians as having won the nationally televised debates with his three opponents — especially his debate with Mousavi.

      Before the debates, both Mousavi and Ahmadinejad campaign aides indicated privately that they perceived a surge of support for Mousavi; after the debates, the same aides concluded that Ahmadinejad’s provocatively impressive performance and Mousavi’s desultory one had boosted the incumbent’s standing. Ahmadinejad’s charge that Mousavi was supported by Rafsanjani’s sons — widely perceived in Iranian society as corrupt figures — seemed to play well with voters.

      Similarly, Ahmadinejad’s criticism that Mousavi’s reformist supporters, including Khatami, had been willing to suspend Iran’s uranium enrichment program and had won nothing from the West for doing so tapped into popular support for the program — and had the added advantage of being true....

      With regard to electoral irregularities, the specific criticisms made by Mousavi — .... Moreover, these irregularities do not, in themselves, amount to electoral fraud even by American legal standards. And, compared with the U.S. presidential election in Florida in 2000, the flaws in Iran’s electoral process seem less significant.

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      • 67%
        hyperbola6 months, 2 weeks ago

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        The Obama administration should vigorously rebut any argument against engaging Tehran following Friday’s vote. More broadly, Ahmadinejad’s victory may force Obama and his senior advisers to come to terms with the deficiencies and internal contradictions in their approach to Iran. Before the Iranian election, the Obama administration had fallen for the same illusion as many of its predecessors — the illusion that Iranian politics is primarily about personalities and finding the right personality to deal with. That is not how Iranian politics works.

        The Islamic Republic is a system with multiple power centers; within that system, there is a strong and enduring consensus about core issues of national security and foreign policy, including Iran’s nuclear program and relations with the United States. Any of the four candidates in Friday’s election would have continued the nuclear program as Iran’s president; none would agree to its suspension.

        Any of the four candidates would be interested in a diplomatic opening with the United States, but that opening would need to be comprehensive, respectful of Iran’s legitimate national security interests and regional importance, accepting of Iran’s right to develop and benefit from the full range of civil nuclear technology — including pursuit of the nuclear fuel cycle — and aimed at genuine rapprochement.

        Such an approach would also, in our judgment, be manifestly in the interests of the United States and its allies throughout the Middle East. It is time for the Obama administration to get serious about pursuing this approach — with an Iranian administration headed by the reelected President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

        http://www.propeller.com/story/2009/06/18/ahmadine...

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        • 100%
          Ratskii6 months, 2 weeks ago

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          My Bullsh*t meter has been hitting the red lately, hyper. You, Nature Boy and Descent have not just been arguing a point I have disagreed with. You have been using right wing tactics to put your thesis forward. I get the feeling your arguments are not disinterested and that you feel you have a dog in this fight. Do you think Mousavi would be less sympathetic to the Palestinian struggle than Ahmadenejad? Personally I don't think he'd dare to.

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          • Neutral
            CaptainLucid6 months, 2 weeks ago

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            Hey hyperbola, go F yourself.

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          • 100%
            Gransater6 months, 2 weeks ago

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            Hyper

            Experts aside, how do you explain the massive demonstrations by Iranians, in Iran, against the result of the election.
            This in a country where contrary opinions to the government generally isn't too healthy. Are all those people missguided aswell?
            There is a sight, if it's still up, called Persian Bay, where regular Iranians are communicating with the world, against newly imposed law in Iran. There is more to this than meets the eye, and your assumption that just because A. won the election last time by some 60 %, he should be able to do so again is at best faulty.

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