Comments for Will Ban's visit to Myanmar yield results?> Reuters »
Posted By gamahuche 6 months ago in NewsU.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has a rare meeting with Myanmar's top general on Friday where he will urge the secretive leader to free all political prisoners and ensure next year's elections are credible.
Questions have been raised about what Ban believes he can achieve and about the timing of his visit, which will start as opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's widely condemned trial is expected to resume in Yangon.
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gamahuche6 months ago
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FTA: WHAT DOES BAN HOPE TO ACHIEVE?
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Ban wants the junta to release all political prisoners, Suu Kyi included, and make meaningful democratic reforms.
The junta is usually impervious to international pressure, although Ban may believe he has some sway with the generals, having convinced them to allow aid agencies to operate in Myanmar after the devastating Cyclone Nargis last year.
Analysts say Ban may have been given some indication by the generals, or by U.N. envoy Ibrahim Gambari after his trip last week, that his visit can bring some kind of positive result.
"There must be something worthwhile he can achieve but it won't be enough to satisfy the international community," said Trevor Wilson, a former Australian ambassador to Myanmar.
"He has to be seen to be tough and uncompromising when he meets the generals and they will appear attentive. However, they're a hardline bunch and I'm not optimistic they'll change."-
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hyperbola6 months ago
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I am always sceptical that "top-down" changes initiated/propagated by foreigners have ANY useful influence in a country. Ban meeting with the Junta is NOT how countries change, and neither is foreign pressure/interference.
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Democracies are very fragile creatures that grow and evolve slowly and are easily destroyed by foreign interference and/or internal corruption (viz the US at present). They have real roots ONLY when they are the desire of the majority of the native population, INCLUDING its elite, and that majority views a democratic system as best for its own interests. Long periods of "calm" are necessary for democracies to germinate and grow strong - which is why foreign pressure is almost always counterproductive.
I always remember the words of a Ugandan Foreign Minister after their civil war. To paraphrase:
"Thank god no one was interested - it would have been much bloodier".
I guess maybe you speak German Gama? Here is part of an excellent interview with Helmudt Schmidt, who has impeccable democratic credentials and even today at age 91 (and married to his first wife for 67 years!) makes most current politicians look like bumbling amateurs (think Tony Blair for example). I link it because he addresses the question of whether "western-style" democracy is the best system for Asia at present (he says maybe no, and bases his analysis on German experience).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03vAA59-6bI=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Hcra8RKu58=related-
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gamahuche6 months ago
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I DON'T speak German, hyperbola..
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It wasn't kosher when I was a toddler in Nazi occupied Bohemia..
But thanks for your comment and I agree with you entirely about Blair - but what did he care when he was personally making out like a bandit!?-
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hyperbola6 months ago
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OK. The interview was spectacular!
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To augment a little bit what I was trying to say, the countries I know that have made the most convincing conversions to democracy (at times still fragile and evolving) are those where the population and its elite became convinced that an autocratic system was a failure and there was a "peaceful" conversion. These "conversions" are not always successful, especially if the autoctonous population is not itself fervently supportive of democracy or internal/external "powers" can manipulate desire for change for their own benefit.
I think of parts of eastern Europe (I best know east Germany), but also of Spain. Maybe the most decisive contribution that the Germans made to a peaceful transition in Spain was the decision of German conservatives (especially Helmut Kohl) to quietly tell, behind the scenes, the "right-wing" in Spain to cool it during the transition and especially during the attempted coup. Much more effective than public interference.
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gamahuche6 months ago
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Ban is going there based on an invitation by the junta.
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Its hard to second-guess the motives of either Ban or the junta.
Does the former have some indication that there is some scope for change? And if so could it be anything better than Suu Kyi's return to indefinite house arrest?
Is this simply an attempt by the junta to improve their image?
Or is everyone just playing games - except the real protagonist of this drama who has been paying the high price of indefinite house-arrest. -
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gamahuche6 months ago
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http://www.propeller.com/story/2009/07/02/defense-...
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As if we need any more "rogue-state" interaction..
From the Asia Times:
Arms shipments, cooperation on underground tunneling and a budding nuclear relationship between North Korea and Myanmar threatens to destabilize Southeast Asia's security balance and raise the ire of China, both countries' powerful neighbor and ally.
The global spotlight has focused on North Korean-Myanmar ties ever since a freighter, the Kang Nam 1, was reported to be steaming towards Myanmar with a suspected cargo of weapons in violation of a recent United Nations Security Council ban. The ban came in the wake of North Korea's ballistic missile test in April and an underground test the following month of a nuclear device. North Korea has promised to launch another ballistic missile test on July 4. -
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TheNewsseeker6 months ago
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I am also not very optimistic. Ban hasn´t earned the reputation during the last few years to be a tough talker or very straight forward. Such visits can be instrumentalized, but it depends on both sides, inhowfar this is possible. The conditions have to be made clear before: no propaganda, no unwanted PR-tour for the regime!
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