The Raw Story - Democrats poised to lose 20 to 50 seats in House: analysts »
Posted By pc25 3 months, 2 weeks ago in Political OpinionAccording to two key observers, Charlie Cook and 538.com 's Nate Silver, Democrats are poised to lose "double-digit" seats in the House amid an increasingly bitter political climate.
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pc253 months, 2 weeks ago
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the full Politico article
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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/26393.ht...
After an August recess marked by raucous town halls, troubling polling data and widespread anecdotal evidence of a volatile electorate, the small universe of political analysts who closely follow House races is predicting moderate to heavy Democratic losses in 2010.
Some of the most prominent and respected handicappers can now envision an election in which Democrats suffer double-digit losses in the House — not enough to provide the 40 seats necessary to return the GOP to power but enough to put them within striking distance.-
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airglide3 months, 2 weeks ago
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This scenario has played out over and over throughout the years. Each side manages to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. This may sound a bit jaded, but each side not having control is actually of benefit to us poor taxpayers. They are so focused on each other that they don't have time to hurt us with more expensive laws.
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pc253 months, 2 weeks ago
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Zogby Interactive: Loss of Democrats' Support Helps Bring Obama Job Approval Down to 42%
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http://www.zogby.com/news/readnews.cfm?id=1737
Several Core Constituencies Souring on Obama
UTICA, New York - President Barack Obama's job approval rating is down to 42%, with a decline in approval from Democrats the leading factor.
The latest Zogby Interactive poll of 4,518 likely voters conducted from August 28-31 found 48% disapprove and 42% approve of the job Obama is doing. The poll found 75% of Democrats approve of Obama's performance, a drop of 13 points among Democrats from an interactive poll done July 21-24 of this year. That same poll found 48% of all likely voters approving of Obama's job performance, and 49% disapproving.
In the most recent poll, 8% of Republicans and 37% of Independents approve of Obama's job performance. Both are down slightly from six weeks ago; two points among Republicans and three among Independents.
The tables below compare changes from July 24 to Aug. 31 in Obama's job approval among some of the groups who were Obama's strongest supporters in the November election;
keep complaining Dems -
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pc253 months, 2 weeks ago
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a 20 seat pickup is a 40 seat swing. If they pick up 35 they regain control of the House. Silver is the Democratic wonder boy who predicted the 2008 outcome in 49 states. Silver also predicts that the Democrats could loose up to 6 Senate seats. He is considered to be a mathematical and statistical guru and certainly no fly by night political prognosticator.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver
Nathaniel Read Silver (born 13 January 1978 in East Lansing, Michigan) is an American statistician, journalist, and writer. After residing in Chicago, Illinois for thirteen years, he moved to New York City in 2009.[1]
Silver first gained public recognition for inventing PECOTA,[2] a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.[3]
In 2007 Silver began to publish analyses and predictions relating to the United States presidential election, 2008, initially under the pseudonym "Poblano." At first this work appeared on the political blog Daily Kos, but in March 2008 Silver established his own website, FiveThirtyEight.com. On May 30, he revealed his real name to his readers and dropped the use of the "Poblano" moniker on his website.[4] By summer of that year, he began to appear as an electoral and political analyst in national print, online, and cable news media.
The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions – he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states – won Silver further attention and commendation.
In April 2009 he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by TIME Magazi
Silver was an early math wizard. According to the New York Times, "By kindergarten, he could multiply two-digit numbers in his head. By 11, he was conducting multivariate analysis to figure out if the size of a baseball stadium affects attendance (it doesn’t). By age 13, he was using statistics to manage a fantasy baseball team. When his parents refused to buy him computer games, he taught himself the Basic programming language and created his own."[6] -
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CRYMTYPHON3 months, 2 weeks ago
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Magic!
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With nothing more than the applied
strategy of "obama will eat the baby!"
Rebublicans shall soon regain the power
and prestige rightfully denied them by
the kenyan usurper.
Today thousands of repentant obama-bots are tearfully
lining up to join the restoration march,
- anxious to embrace tax cuts for their betters,
and end government interference in national bankruptcy.
Thousands? no, millions!
It's a conservative estimate-
hefaa1Comment removed: Hard Banned
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JoseMadreComment removed: Hard Banned
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FairNBalanced3 months, 2 weeks ago
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Obama and the liberals are making huge mistakes. As long as they continue on this path, they will fail. They have lost touch with the common folks. People are losing confidence in what Obama says, because it is proven to be largely disingenuous
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hefaa1Comment removed: Hard Banned
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