Why Obama’s Iran Policy Will Fail - Stuck in Bush Mode in a Changed World »
Posted By hyperbola 1 month ago in Political OpinionWhile the tone of the Obama administration is different from that of its predecessor, and some of its foreign policies diverge from those of George W. Bush, at their core both administrations subscribe to the same doctrine: Whatever the White House perceives as a threat — whether it be Iran, North Korea, or the proliferation of long-range missiles — must be viewed as such by Moscow and Beijing.
In addition, by the evidence available, Barack Obama has not drawn the right conclusion from his predecessor’s failed Iran policy. A paradigm of sticks-and-carrots simply is not going to work in the case of the Islamic Republic. Here, a lesson is readily available, if only the Obama White House were willing to consider Iran’s recent history. It is unrealistic to expect that a regime which fought Saddam Hussein’s Iraq (then backed by the United States) to a standstill in a bloody eight-year war in the 1980s, unaided by any foreign power, and has for 30 years withstood the consequences of U.S.-imposed economic sanctions will be alarmed by Washington’s fresh threats of "crippling sanctions."
... When it comes to the nuclear conundrum, what distinguishes China and Russia from the U.S. is that they have conferred unconditional diplomatic recognition and acceptance on the Islamic Republic of Iran. So their commercial and diplomatic links with Tehran are thriving. Indeed, a sub-structure of pipelines and economic alliances between hydrocarbon-rich Russia, Iran, and energy-hungry China is now being forged. In other words, the foundation is being laid for the emergence of a Russia-Iran-China diplomatic triad in the not-too-distant future, while Washington remains stuck in an old groove of imposing "punishing" sanctions against Tehran for its nuclear program.
...Iran’s leaders know that during his second term in office — as Seymour Hersh revealed in the New Yorker — Bush authorized a clandestine CIA program with a budget of $400 million to destabilize the Iranian regime. They are also aware that the CIA has focused on stoking disaffection among Sunni ethnic minorities in Shiite-ruled Iran. These include ethnic Arabs in the oil-rich province of Khuzistan adjoining Iraq, and ethnic Baluchis in Sistan-Baluchistan Province abutting the Pakistani province of Baluchistan.
Little wonder that Tehran pointed an accusing finger at the U.S. for the recent assassination of six commanders of its Revolutionary Guard Corps in Sistan-Baluchistan by two suicide bombers belonging to Jundallah (the Army of Allah), an extremist Sunni organization. As yet, there is no sign, overt or covert, that President Obama has canceled or repudiated his predecessor’s program to destabilize the Iranian regime.
....During George W. Bush’s eight-year presidency, the U.S. position in the world underwent a sea change. From the Clinton administration, Bush had inherited a legacy of 92 months of continuous economic prosperity, a budget in surplus, and the transformation of the U.N. Security Council into a handmaiden of the State Department. What he passed on to Barack Obama was the Great Recession in a world where America’s popularity had hit rock bottom and its economic strength was visibly ebbing. All this paved the way for the economic and political rise of China, as well as the strengthening of Russia as an energy giant capable of extending its influence in Europe and challenging American dominance in the Middle East.
In this new environment expecting the leaders of Iran, backed by China and Russia, to do the bidding of Washington means placing a bet on the inconceivable.
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hyperbola
Military brat (14th generation American) with unassuaged wanderlust. By age 11, schools in four states and three foreign countries (in 3 languages). Left home at ...
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Neutral
Endoscopy4 weeks, 1 day ago
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Typical of a hyper pick. All that is left out is the Zionist conspiracy. The author wrote a book about the "worlds vanishing oils resources". That in itself demonstrates his ignorance. In the last 10 years there has been found more oil reserves that was known to exist 10 years ago. And a lot of them are where we can drill for them but our liberals want to not allow drilling here.
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The information on the topic is just a relevant. Written from a very biased point of view. Mostly the same as hyper's who is a good friend of Hamas.-
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hyperbola4 weeks, 1 day ago
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you sure do like chanting lies over and over and over huh Endo? It takes only minutes to show that you are again lying. Why do you hate America and Americans so much?
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Here is an article from an eminent CalTech scientist where you could begin to inform yourself.
THE END OF THE AGE OF OIL
By David Goodstein
This article is adapted from a talk that Caltech vice provost and professor of physics and applied physics David Goodstein presented at an April 29 program of the Institute support group, the Caltech Associates. Goodstein’s new book, Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil, was published in February by W. W. Norton. On December 5, the New York Times Book Review named Out of Gas one of its 100 Notable Books of the Year.
http://pr.caltech.edu/periodicals/CaltechNews/arti... -
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hyperbola4 weeks, 1 day ago
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Or Endo, have a look at this graphic that shows oil production and discovery yearly since 1930. Once again why do you lie repeatedly here?
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The Growing Gap
... There is a growing gap between discoveries and production.
World oil production is running flat out. Only the Saudis claim to have the ability to produce more though some dispute this. It is not a simple matter of turning a spigot or pumping faster. Oil fields can be permanently damaged by attempting to produce too fast.
Soon there will be a gap between production and demand. ....
http://planetforlife.com/oilcrisis/oilsituation.ht...
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Neutral
Thinker223 weeks, 6 days ago
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FTA:
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" It is unrealistic to expect that a regime which fought Saddam Hussein’s Iraq (then backed by the United States) to a standstill in a bloody eight-year war in the 1980s, unaided by any foreign power, and has for 30 years withstood the consequences of U.S.-imposed economic sanctions will be alarmed by Washington’s fresh threats of "crippling sanctions."
I have to agree (with a reservation that in its war against Iran Saddam was backed NOT by the US but by the Soviet Union). When it will become clear that nothing but the use of overwhelming force will prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons such overwhelming force should and will be used.-
Neutral
hyperbola3 weeks, 6 days ago
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Boy is your world view replete with blinkers, if not lies. We know for a fact that the US supported Saddam, amongst other things with components for chemical weapons that he used on Kurds (as did the Iranians - for that matter so did Winston Churchill) and we have all seen the murdering charlatan Rumsfeld in Bagdad shaking hands with Saddam at the very moment those chemical weapons were being used.
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What is less well known, but well documented, is that we aided Saddam with military intelligence, including satellite photos, and with "threatened attacks" involving our Navy that in at least one case even involved shooting down Iranian aircraft.
You need to get some education and facts before expressing "opinions". -
Neutral
hyperbola3 weeks, 6 days ago
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By the way, if there is a country for which "overwhelming force" might be highly justified, that is the zionist state with its several hundred undeclared nukes and its chemical and biological warfare programs, all of which involve violation of international law.
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On the other hand, israel is such a pipsqueak country that a 6 month regime of total economic, financial, oil and cultural blockade/sanctions would certainly be enough to end their violations. Long past time to do so and the zionists should be given a single further chance to end their crimes against humanity and their violations of international law before beginning.
The Samson Option: Israeli Nuclear Threats and Blackmail
http://www.propeller.com/story/2009/10/01/the-sams...
The Samson Option is a term used to describe Israel’s alleged deterrence strategy of massive retaliation with nuclear weapons as a “last resort” against nations whose military attacks threaten its existence, and possibly against other targets as well.[1] Israel refuses to admit it has nuclear weapons or describe how it would use them, an official policy of nuclear ambiguity, also known as "nuclear opacity."...
...It is estimated Israel has as many as 400 atomic and hydrogen nuclear weapons.[3] These can be launched from land, sea and air.[4] ...
The original conception of the Samson Option was only as deterrence. According to American journalist Seymour Hersh and Israeli historian Avner Cohen Israeli leaders like David Ben-Gurion, Shimon Peres, Levi Eshkol and Moshe Dayan created the term in the mid-1960s....
...Seymour Hersh writes that once a coalition of right-wing political parties made Menachen Begin Prime Minister in 1977, the goal of Israel’s Samson Option began to change from deterrence only to also using “Israeli might to redraw the political map of the Middle East.”[16] Israel Shahak, an Israeli critic of its policies, claims: "Israel clearly prepares itself to seek overtly a hegemony over the entire Middle East...without hesitating to use for the purpose all means available, including nuclear ones."[17]
The political parties, which united in 1988 as the Likud Party, shared the goal of expanding the state of Israel to the Israeli-occupied territories.[18]....
Begin immediately “gave orders to target more Soviet cities” for nuclear attack, which necessitated better targeting information.[20] Israel increased its espionage efforts, including by convicted spy Jonathan Pollard, in order to obtain nuclear targeting information on Soviet cities.[21]... -
hyperbolaComment removed: Spam
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